The Good The Bad And The Ugly: 10 Years of Unemployment
Over the last 10 years unemployment has increased from 10.34% to 15.3%.
Employment opportunities, or lack thereof, are at the heart of the economy and hold the key to sustainable development and poverty reduction.
Who is unemployed and where?
A large portion of those unemployed in the country are youths. Since the PF have been in power from 2011, youth unemployment has increased dramatically. In 2011, 23% of youths were unemployed, rising to 28% in 2016 and in 2020 60% of the total employable population were unemployed youths.
Youths who have completed senior secondary education are more likely to be unemployed than those who have not completed this level of education. This is a result of educated youth being more likely to be able to afford to be unemployed whilst waiting for opportunities. It is also likely to be a result of educated youths not taking up low-income jobs.
Youths who are less educated do not have this privilege and subsequently have to obtain employment faster on family farms or businesses. Such employment is poorly paid and risky due to seasonal uncertainties.
Youth unemployment leads to additional issues within the country, such as crime, drug abuse and political violence. It also means that the most productive age group is not actively participating in economic growth activities.
Those living in urban areas are also more likely to be unemployed.
Although those in rural settings are more likely to be employed, as mentioned previously, their employment is generally lower-paid and more uncertain.
As a result, underemployment and low-productivity employment is on the rise in both rural and urban areas, with wages in urban areas also falling during the PF’s time in government.
What are the causes of this unemployment?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that unemployment in Zambia is caused by a variety of factors including, but not limited to:
- Low manufacturing and industrial base
- Weak entrepreneurial culture
- Low levels of economic diversification and productivity
- Weak education system that doesn’t support practical work-related skills
- Lack of investments in areas of high potential for employment generation such as agriculture
In 2011, the Patriotic Front aimed to address such issues by promising its citizens ‘more money in your pocket’. They stated that one of their first actions when they got into power would be to tackle unemployment within the country in the first 90 days. This promise was not met, with unemployment increasing during their time in government.
To reduce poverty and inequality and achieve inclusive growth, the World Bank believe that the government must create 11.8m new jobs by 2050. They note the importance of making these jobs ‘better’, with higher wages and higher earnings as well as being inclusive to the whole population, especially those who live on less than $1.90 a day.
The PF blamed the MMD for the youth unemployment within the country however appear to have only made the issue worse during their time in government.
Recent pay rises which the government provided to its President, Ministers and MPs demonstrates poor spending tactics with money which has come from large high-interest loans. This money could have instead been utilised through pumping it back into the economy to create jobs which should subsequently increase the GDP to aid debt-repayment.
Having shown no improvement in levels of unemployment over the last ten years, and with only eight months left in office Minister of Youth and Sport, Emmanuel Mulenga said that he was sure the challenge of unemployment “will be addressed”.
What was employment like before the PF?
Before the PF came to power in 2011, unemployment was high but falling.
What do the experts have to say?
Historian and political analyst Dr Sishuwa Sishuwa warned that the country will explode after the elections on August 12. One of the reasons behind this, he believes, is due to the current “intolerable levels of unemployment” which has provided an “endless supply of desperate, impoverished youths as ‘party cadres’ for the violent political elites to deploy as they see fit”.
To add, Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies has said that Zambians currently “bear the brunt of unemployment and inflation”, adding that “neither a new Lungu term nor an IMF rescue package can guarantee positive economic development outcomes”. Subsequently, only a change in power is thought to resolve the issue.
Doctor Kanyamuna, who holds a Doctor of Philosophy in Monitoring and Evaluation, has also commented that the unemployment issues which the country face today are far worse than they have been before.
“Unemployment and especially job opportunities (in all sectors) have become a mammoth problem in Zambia today than in the past” he said.
Leader of the United Party for National Development, Hakainde Hichilema, who was previously a successful businessman, agrees that unemployment within the country “needs to change for the better”, with part of his manifesto aiming to create quality jobs, particularly for youths and women.
Political Advisor Gregory Chileshe noted that, because of the political decisions which the PF have made, the unemployed are finding day-to-day life very difficult, especially due to the high prices of commodities which have been rising as a result of inflation.
The cycle of poverty will be broken if its root cause is resolved, unemployment.